Hi all,
The Kings Writ ran cracker to finish second at 14/1 at Wincanton on Thursday with my other Moving in Style finishing 3rd. I read the race well enough and a small profit made on the race is what we are in the business for.
Fantastic! It’s the only word I can use to describe this weekend’s action from the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown and there’s also good jumps action this side of the Irish Sea with competitive enough cards at Sandown, Musselburgh & Wetherby.
Plenty to get through over the next couple of day so I will try to keep the words down to the minimum. I have plenty of potential bets for Saturday from both Britain & Ireland but the only place I can start this weekend’s betting preview, is at the Dublin Racing Festival. I have taken an in depth look at all seven races for those of you who want to have bet in all the races. My Leopardstown selections will be at the bottom.
Dublin Racing Festival
Leopardstown
12:50 – I’m hoping my Albert Bartlett ante post selection; Longhouse Poet can win or go close in this 2m 6f Grade 1 novices’ hurdle. Elixir D’ainay finished one place ahead of Longhouse Poet behind Envoi Allen at Naas 27-days ago. He’s a good novice for sure but his stamina for the trip will be tested here. Cobbler’s Way was runner-up to the smart Andy Dufresne on his hurdle debut back in November and built on that promise when making all to win a maiden hurdle here over 2m 4 ½ f. The fourth The Big Getaway has since bolted up in a Naas maiden. A big chasing type Cobbler’s Way looked an ideal horse for the Albert Bartlett after his Leopardstown success. This is a step up in class for the 6-year-old who can improve for the step up in trip and has each way claims at around 12/1.
1:25 – Eight runners have been declared for the 2m 1f Dublin Chase. Favourite Chacun Pour Soi bids to restore his Champion Chaser credentials, after his second placed effort behind A Plus Tard, who re-opposes here, at Leopardstown over Christmas. Connections will be disappointed if he can’t reverse places with the winner with that run under his belt. This is not a two-horse race though. Besides the favourite trainer Willie Mullins also saddles Min & Cilaos Emery. The former bids for a race hat trick in the race. He might be better over further but his form figures at Leopardstown are 1211 so he can’t be easily dismissed on a track that suits. My preference is for Cilaos Emery who comes into the race slightly under the radar. The 8-year-old’s won both starts this season’s starts at Naas & Cork. He’s now unbeaten on his three starts over fences. Granted he lacks a bit of experience and his jumping will be tested in this company, but he remains a potential Grade 1 performer. We will know more about him today.
2:00 – Just the seven go to post for the 2m 1f Irish Arkle but what a cracking line up: Notebook, Fakir D’oudairies, Melon, Bapaume & Cash Back, the latter three trained by Willie Mullins. The first three named need no introduction. Bapaume, a good staying hurdler, finished 4th of 18 to Paisley Park in last seasons Stayers Hurdle. The 7-year-old put in an impressive jumping display by a novice when winning a Naas beginners’ chase when dropped back to 2m 3f. This is just his third start over fences and there’s plenty of scope for improvement. Interesting to see he drops even further back in distance today. It’s probably a race to enjoy without having to have a bet but It wouldn’t surprise me if Bapaume turned out to be best of the three Mullins runners.
2:35 – The first of two big field valuable handicaps. This one is a 2m 1f handicap chase with 16 declared runners.
Last year’s winner Quamino, previous C&D winner Paloma Blue, Snugsborough Hall, Charlie Stout, Éclair De Beaufeu & Goulane Chosen all have chances. There should be a good pace so it should be a truly run race.
Quamino is 4lb higher than when winning 12 months ago. He’s vulnerable to any improvers or better handicapped horses, in the field but I wouldn’t be shocked if he popped up to win this again.
Snugsborough Hall was a good winner of a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival off 16lb lower, prior to that he had a novice chase over C&D. Had a nice prep for this over hurdles at Cork 28-days ago and should be spot on fitness wise.
Charlie Stout took advantage of a good handicap mark to win the valuable Dan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse 21-days ago. He’s just 5lb higher here and if he’s as effective at Leopardstown has a great chance of another big race success.
Éclair De Beaufeu was a good novice hurdler and was still in contention when unseating his rider in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The 6-year-old has taken well to the larger obstacles finishing runner-up to Notebook on his chase debut at Punchestown before winning a Wexford beginners chase. Has struggled in Grade 2 & 3 company on his last two starts but he looks competitively weighted for his handicap debut and Sean O’Keeffe takes off a useful 5lb. No problem with big fields over hurdles, was 4th of 19 in the handicap hurdle here 12 months ago and can go well for trainer Gordon Elliott who had last year’s runner-up.
3:10 – The Irish Champion Hurdle. A field of ten are set to meet the starter. The winner of the race could find themselves heading for next months Champion Hurdle with Honeysuckle, Sharjah & Klassical Dream all putting their Cheltenham credentials on the line. Klassical Dream won last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle before following up in the Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Has been below par on both this season’s start. He’s better than he’s been able to show so far this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if last seasons top 2m novice hurdler bounced back to form to win this. He may need genuinely soft ground to be at his best but provided it doesn’t dry out too much he’s arguably the value in the race.
3:45 – Just the 23 go to post for the valuable 2m Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle not surprisingly given there’s €88,500 on offer to the winner.
Looking at the race I can make some sort of case for at least eight of the runners. Willie Mullins saddles seven runners so you can’t rule out any of his out.
He has the ante post favourite in the J P McManus owned Unexcepted. The 6-year-old has only had the three career starts and is open to any amount of progress but at the prices I can let him win.
At slightly bigger prices Tiger Tap Tap & Buildmeupbuttercup look better plays.The former was a decent juvenile he has two his last two starts. Easily beat three rivals on his last start 23-days ago. He requires a good gallop which he should get today and he’s open to further progress now going handicapping. Paul Townend rode him on all three of his starts this season and he opts for Buildmeupbuttercup. The mare is an excellent dual-purpose horse who finished runner-up at Royal Ascot in the summer and also second in the November Handicap at Naas. She was traveling like the winner in a valuable Fairyhouse handicap hurdle 62-days ago when making a mistake two out but stayed on well enough all the way to the line to finish 2nd of 15 to an improving stablemate. Up 4lb but If jumping with more fluency, has a race like this in her.
Of the rest of the Mullins runners; Fan De Blues is an interesting light weight. A useful hurdler when trained in France. The 5-year-old made a winning debut for Willie Mullins when winning a Thurles maiden hurdle. Shaping that day like he would improve for a step up to 2m 4f. Hard to say whether a mark of 125 makes him well handicapped or not but excellent 5lb conditional Conor McNamara has been booked for the ride and he has no weight on his back.
Top Moon is open to improvement and comes into the race in great form having finished runner-up to Alfa Mix at Naas 48-days ago. The 5-year-old’s improvement has come when stepping up to 2m 4f so the drop to the minimum trip asks a different question of him. If it’s not an inconvenience he should be finishing his race of strongly.
Daybreak Boy was runner-up over C&D at Christmas in a 25-runner field. He’s up only 4lb for that effort and shouldn’t be far away if reproducing that that form.
Golden Jewel was third in the same Leopardstown handicap and he’s up 3lb here. The 7-year-old did best of those held up that day and was strong all the way to the line. He’s vulnerable to better handicapped horses in the field but is an outsider with serious each way claims.
Thatsy was one place and ¾ length behind Golden Jewel in 4th. There won’t be much between the three horses at the revised weights, but he was having his first handicap start that day and will have gained some vital big field handicap experience. Up 3lb but he remains on a competitive mark I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 5-year-old come out ahead this time.
Of the rest Scheu Time has returned to form on his last two start. Last time out he took advantage of a falling mark to win a Cork handicap hurdle. He’s up 10lb for that success and this a much tougher race but he’s got a good each way chance.
4:20 – A Grade 2 bumper concludes an excellent day’s racing. Last time out Leopardstown bumper winners Appreciate It & Eric Bloodaxe head the betting for this and are at the head of the ante post betting for the Cheltenham Bumper. They look to have it between them from a win perspective and I just like the claims of Eric Bloodaxe who could appreciate the drying ground, his win here came on yielding.
At bigger price Lieutenant Command could give you a good run for your money. A winner of a point, he returned from a 593-day absence to win a Limerick bumper very easily on his bumper debut. Could be anything and has each way claims if the ground doesn’t dry out too much.
The Rest of Saturday
There’s plenty of decent racing this side of the Irish Sea on Saturday and here’s a brief look and a few selections. Starting at Sandown.
Sandown
1:15 – Top weight Dolos has a touch of class but he holds no secrets from the handicapper and is vulnerable to better handicapped horse but if he gets a good pace, he’s a contender for the inform Paul Nicholls stable. Two novices on the upgrade are Full Flow, trained by Kim Bailey, who has won two of his four starts over fences. He’s a worthy favourite but he’s plenty short enough for me at a best priced 13/8. Joke Dancer from the inform Sue Smith stable has also won two of his four starts over the larger obstacles. A good winner at Warwick two starts back a combination of heavy ground and 2m 4f at Haydock seemed to find him out 14-days ago. Has jumped notably to his right on a four of his starts over fences and this is first time jumping right-handed. A quick return after Haydock but could early bounce back given the form of the stable.
3:00 – Seventeen are set to go to post for this 2m 7f Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. Given heavy ground stamina will be at a premium here.
Agrapart isn’t as good as he used to be but the softer the going the better for the 9-year-old who drops back into handicap company for the first time since winning the 2016 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. Not without chance given underfoot conditions and he stay’s 3m well. Still vulnerable to younger legs.
Bold Plan landed a gamble when winning at Haydock back in November and was sent off 3/1 favourite for a valuable Ascot handicap hurdle 14-days ago. Only got as far as the third that day but is open to further progress. Stays 2m 4f but 3m on heavy ground asks a new question of this progressive 6-year-old.
Ask Ben has run well on both this season’s runs, putting up a career best when runner-up at Cheltenham. Stays 3m well, acts on soft but heavy is an unknown. Open to a bit more improvement but stable has gone 79-days & 50 runners since a win.
Ask Dillon made an encouraging seasonal return when a close-up 3rd of 11 at Chepstow 36-days ago. He should be all the better for that run and remains unexposed as stayer and should enjoy a stamina test in the mud.
Big Shark is effective on heavy and stays well. Made a good start in handicaps when runner-up on heavy ground at Haydock last month. An improving staying handicap hurdler, just his 5th career start, for trainer Philip Hobbs who has won this race twice since 2011.
Another trainer with two wins in the race is Paul Nicholls. He saddles Dan McGrue. The 8-year-old put up a career best when beating Acey Milan at Plumpton in November. Almost tailed off at Newbury a few weeks later, maybe he had a tougher race on heavy ground than thought at Plumpton. First start since and the trainer’s runners are going well. Can be competitive on heavy ground although his stamina for 3m must be taken on trust.
Golan Fortune was runner-up in this race in 2018, off 2lb lower. Despite being an 8-year-old, he’s only had 12 career starts. Returned from a 559-day lay off with two starts at Cheltenham in the autumn winning the second of them 77-days ago. Handles the mud and has probably been trained for this race.
Coole Cody was runner-up in this 12 months ago, off 6lb higher. Ran well when third at Uttoxeter two starts back but was well behind Big Shark at Haydock last time. Gets the first time cheekpieces today but he hasn’t won since 2017. A place is probably the best he can hope for today and he might not to get the lead he managed to get in this 12 months ago.
3:35 – Classic Ben won this 3m handicap chase 12 months ago and is just 1lb higher this time around. Probably been trained for this race again and has a good chance of back to back wins.
Mister Malarky has a decent chance on last season’s best novice form. So far this season two underwhelming runs sandwich a good 6th of 24 in the Ladbroke Trophy.
Cloudy Glen remains a handicap chaser with potential despite running out at the first at Cheltenham last Saturday and trainer Venetia Williams has won this race twice since 2014.
Deise Aba is even less exposed over fences this is just his 4th start over the larger obstacles. Beat one rival at Catterick on New Year’s Day. This will test his jumping but he’s probably on mark he can win off. Trainer Philips Hobbs won this race in 2010.
Musselburgh
3:15 – Twelve are set to go to post for the Edinburgh National.
Little Bruce is a solid market leader. The 8-year-old has won two regional National’s. Tasting success in the 3m 6 ½ f Cambridgeshire National last March and staying on well to win the North Yorkshire Grand National 23-days ago. Up 6lb for the latter success but he’s a steadily improving staying handicap chaser.
Brian Boranha was in third when falling at the last in the Catterick race. Today’s better ground will suit the and the 9-year-old shouldn’t be far away.
Chic Name returns to regulation fences from two solid placed efforts in Cross Country race at Cheltenham. The 8-year-old has been trained for this race. A prominent racer, this track will suit as will the better ground he gets today.
Bob Mahler is another who will be suited by the sounder surface. He beat Little Bruce at Cheltenham in April and he’s better at the weights here. A good second at Doncaster last time and has a good chance off his present mark if he stays the 4m. One big negative is the form of the stable, as trainer Warren Greatrex is 0 winners from 26 runners in the past 14-days.
Wetherby
2:45 – The Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase is being covered by ITV Racing. On paper it doesn’t look the strongest renewal of the race.
If there is a top-class novice chaser in the field, it will be the Kim Bailey trained Newtide. The 7-year-old hasn’t been seen since making a winning debut over fences in a Ffos Las novice chase 83-days ago. Goes well fresh and all his three career wins have come on soft ground. Trainer had a welcome winner at Wincanton on Thursday.
Chapel Stile, a useful handicap hurdler made it 1 win from 2 runs over fences with battling win over Cloudy Glen at Carlisle in December. Steps up to 3m here but won three times over hurdles at 2m 7f+ so shouldn’t fail for stamina. This a step up in class but there could be more improvement to come from the 8-year-old.
Well I hope you enjoyed the read. Sorry for the length of today’s preview but the racing is that good it was hard to make it shorter.
Now for those all-important Saturday selections.
Saturday Selections
Leopardstown
12:50:
Cobbler’s Way – 0.5pts each way – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
1:25:
Cilaos Emery – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet Victor
2:35:
Éclair De Beaufeu – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365
Charlie Stout 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
3:45:
Buildmeupbuttercup – 1pt win – 7/1 @Bet365
Thatsy – 1pt win – 12/1 @Bet365
Fan De Blues – 0.5pts each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 20/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Other Selections:
Sandown
3:00:
Bold Plan – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365
Big Shark – 1pt win – 9/1 @Bet365
3:35:
Classic Ben – 1pt win – 5/1 @Bet365
Musselburgh
3:15:
Little Bruce – 1pt win – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
More selections from Leopardstown tomorrow.
Cheers
John