Hi all,
Aherlow landed the place side of the bet at Down Royal on Tuesday. I have had a good look at 3m 1f handicap chase at Wincanton today and I have a selection from that race for you.
Wincanton
2:20 – I do like a decent 3m + handicap chase and I couldn’t resist taking a looking at this race. Twelve are set to go to post for this Class 3 contest and you can make cases for half of the field.
Darlac, shapes like he’s on a winning mark and should be suited to the drop back to 3m 1f today but maybe needs slightly better ground to win.
Reikers Island couldn’t have been more impressive when winning over C&D in December 2018 before finishing a close 4th of 10 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury. Was still in the lead when making a bad mistake at the last otherwise may well have won. Didn’t run up to his best on two subsequent last season and has been below par on both this season’s starts. The 7-year-old is on a tempting mark if bouncing back to his best but like Darlac may need a sounder surface to do so.
Worthy Farm responded to the fitting of the first-time blinkers to register a battling success over C&D. No issues with the ground for the 7-year-old but he’s up 5lb and needs the headgear to work again.
One Of Us won the 3m 3 ½ f Southern National at Fontwell on his last start 74-days ago. Up 4lb for that success, he’s going the right way but may find today’s trip a bit sharp. Trainers horses are going well though so he can’t be ruled out here given his steadily progressive profile over fences.
Elan De Balme, trained by David Pipe, is an intriguing ex-French trained 6-year-old who won two of his seven starts over fences in France. Making his debut for the Pipe yard today and he could be on a competitive mark for his English debut.
The Kings Writ looked a progressive handicap chaser winning at Exeter in December 2018. The 9-year-old was all the better for his return when a good second, clear of the rest, to an improver back Exeter on New Year’s Day. Trainer Kayley Woollacott has gone 54 runners and 377-days since her last success which is a slight concern although stable star Lalor went close at Cheltenham last Saturday. Just his second start beyond 3m but his form figures racing at around 3m are 2P212. Handicapper has raised him 5lb since last run, but he must be respected.
Moving In Style all the better for his seasonal return when runner-up at Haydock two starts. The 9-year-old occupied the same spot when runner-up to the progressive Copperhead in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury last month. He’s on a competitive mark for a stable among the winners and looks a solid enough favourite. Sam Twiston Davies who has ridden the horse on his last two start is One Of Us which may or not be significant.
Verdict: Moving In Style deserves to head the market on recent form and wouldn’t be winning this out of turn. Sam Twiston-Davies who has ridden the favourite on his last two starts rides One Of Us who’s going the right way. Any support for the Pipe debutant Elan De Balme would be significant. The Kings Writ has drifted alarmingly with some firms this morning but has a race like this in him and despite the 5lb rise in the weights for his last effort will appeal to each way players.
1pt each way – The Kings Writ – 14/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Moving in Style – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John