Hi all,
As I was away last week there wasn’t a weekly notebook but in all truth we didn’t miss much on the eyecatchers front.
All eyes across the Irish Sea this weekend with the latest running of the two-day Dublin Festival at Leopardstown. Fingers crossed that the fixture isn’t blighted by quickening ground that led to whole raft of non-runners on the Sunday card. There has been selective watering of the track recently which should hopefully mitigate the problem this year.
This side of the Irish Sea there’s also quality racing action on Saturday.
Sandown hosts a seven-race card which includes the Grade 1 Betway Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase and some competitive looking handicaps.
There’s a Grade 2 novices chase at Wetherby and Lingfield play hosts to a couple of Listed races on its all-weather card.
Finally, Musselburgh plays host to it’s Cheltenham Trials Weekend, with a two-day fixture. The big races on its Saturday card are two Class 2 handicaps, the Scottish County Hurdle and the 4m 1f Edinburgh National and both races are being covered by ITV Racing.
It’s going to be the biggest betting weekend of 2020 for me and I can’t wait for all the action to begin.
Before all that let’s take brief look back some of the last week’s racing and a few horse’s worth adding to your trackers. My first horse tracker horse comes from the previous weeks action.
Saturday January 18th
Navan
Alfa Mix – Gavin Cromwell
Kilfenora produced a good performance to win his second successive Graded handicap hurdle when landing the Grade B 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Navan. The 8-year-old will probably be forced out of handicap company after this success. He should continue to hold his own in better races.
The first two pulled well clear of the rest of the field and the one with future in mind could be the second Alfa Mix, a winner of C&D handicap hurdle on his previous start was the only one to give the winner a race. The 5-year-old is now 2 wins from 6 runs since going handicapping and remains one to keep on side. The handicapper has raised him just 6lb for this effort which doesn’t look harsh. It will be interesting to see what the English handicapper gives him for the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival as I think that could be an ideal target for him.
Saturday January 25th
Cheltenham
It was Cheltenham Trials Day on Saturday and there were some good performances and a handful of eyecatchers.
Paisley Park is on course to retain his Stayers Hurdle crown at the Cheltenham Festival after a decisive success in the Cleeve Hurdle. Saturday win means he’s now 5 from 5 when racing beyond 3m.
Can anything beat him in March? Well, if Benie Des Dieux was to run she would make the race interesting but her trainer is more likely to aim here at the Mares Hurdle again. However, If Paisley Park turns up in the same condition, he was on Saturday he will win the Stayer Hurdle. It’s as simple as that.
Santini divides opinion,doesn’t he.He hadn’t impressed when only scrambling home on his seasonal return at Sandown back in November. Not seen out since that run. He’s had a wind-op in the meantime and that seems to have had the desired effect as he ran out a game winner of Saturday’s Cotswold Chase.
It was a career best effort from the 8-year-old who was given a Racing Post Rating of 173 after this win. Now the 8-year-old does carry plenty of condition so he could be even fitter in March and could improve further. He goes well at the track and handles the unique Cheltenham Festival atmosphere. He did seem to have a hard race on Saturday so let’s just hope it doesn’t have an impact on him come March.
Hot Race: Timeform Novices Handicap Chase
I mentioned in Monday Daily Punt column that the 2m 4 ½ f novices handicap chase on Trials Day is a race where the form can be followed next time out.
Looking at the last 22 running’s of the race. If you had backed the first three home in the race on their next start you would have made £18.87 to a £1 level stake. Those that ran in a Grade 3 or Listed race on their next start produced – 5 winners from 15 runners +23.25 8 placed.
Three horses from this race have gone onto win the Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival. Which means the likes Simply The Betts, Imperial Aura and even 5th placed Champagne Court can’t be ruled out here back in March.
Note Lalor When He Gets Better Ground
Unlike the novices’ handicap chase earlier on in the card this hasn’t been a race that has produced much in the way of next time out profit. If you had backed all the 66 horses that had finished in the first three on their next run, you would have lost £25.75 to a £1 level stake.
The only serious profitable angle would be to back the winner on their next start if racing in Grade 3 company – 3 winners from 8 runners +11.50 4 placed.
There was a good finish to this year’s race with Cepage battling on well to hold of Spiritofthegames & Lalor on the run in.
Those stats would make Cepage of interest if his next start was in the Festival Plate or even more so the Grade 3 handicap chase at Kempton at the end of February.
No doubt the likes of Spiritofthegames & Lalor will be back for the Festival Plate. The last named backed up a good effort here on New Year’s Day, not something he’s always done in the past, and would be worth noting on a sounder surface that he got on Saturday. He’s retains the ability to win a decent handicap pot either at Cheltenham or Aintree if gets his favoured underfoot conditions.
The Twisler – Neil Mulholland
My Cheltenham Trials eyecatcher ran in the handicap hurdle that concluded card. The Twisler holds no secrets from the handicapper but he ran much better than his final position of 5th suggests. The 8-year-old who wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Gunnery at Doncaster on his previous start.
Upped to Class 2 company here he was still bang in contention coming to the last before weakening on the run in.
Given the ground would have been plenty soft enough for him it was a good effort in the circumstances. His best two RPR’s have come on a sounder surface and it’s worth noting he’s now 1lb below last season’s winning mark. A drop back in Class and a sounder surface can see him back into the winner’s enclosure.
Doncaster
The standout performance of Doncaster’s Saturday card which I attended came from Mister Fisher, many Doncaster racegoers will probably say Lady Buttons, who made 2 wins from 3 starts since going chasing when beating a small but select field in the Grade 2 Lightning Novice Chase. Mister Fisher who had won a 2m 4 ½ f novice chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting wasn’t troubled with the drop back to 2m ½ f.
He certainly appreciated the drying ground here and he now has the option of the Arkle and the longer Marsh Chase at Festival. He will be strong contender for whichever race he goes for although his winning chance may depend on the ground.
Lisp, trained by Alan King, a useful big field 2m handicap hurdler wasn’t beaten far into third. The 6-year-old probably doesn’t have the class for an Arkle Novices Chase, but the Plumpton novice winner has now qualified for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Festival and he would be suited by the big field scenario that race normally attracts.
O K Corral so disappointing on his two starts this season took Doncaster’s feature race the Sky Bet Handicap Chase. Travelling well through the race he had a enough left in the tank to hold off the inform Fingeronthswitch after the last.
His improved from was put down to the 10-year-old returning to a flatter track. Credit should also go to top Irish Amateur jockey Derek O’Connor who seems to get on well with the horse.
Whether he can back up this effort is the big unknown. He won’t be going to Cheltenham, but connections are contemplating a tilt at the Grand National. He doesn’t scream an Aintree horse to me but he’s a contender if he did go for the race.
Chidswell – Nicky Richards
The horse for the tracker from the Sky Bet Chase could be Chidswell. The 11-year-old appreciated the drying ground he got on Saturday. He’s got plenty of ability but just makes too many silly mistakes in his race as he did again on Saturday. He finished a well beaten third but made a bad error two out but for that mistake would have finished a bit closer to the front two at the line.
Twice a winner early last season including over 3m 2f at Doncaster last March, off 5lb lower. He remains on a competitive mark. He can win a race with a better round of jumping and in slightly less demanding company than he faced on Saturday. The Doncaster race he won last year could well be on his agenda again.
Cheers
John