Hi all,
I’m away in North Wales for most of the week. Which means these are my last selections until Saturday and there won’t be a tracker horses update this week.
However, I have had a look at Thursday’s Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase from ante post perspective and my betting preview and selections for that race will be out on Monday morning.
Not a brilliant Saturday for the selections although Defi De Seuil’s win in the Clarence House Chase means he’s now a best priced 2/1 for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. That 10/1 ante post bet is looking better by the day.
It’s not great racing today. However, I have selections from Thurles, if it survives a precautionary early morning inspection due to the possibility of overnight frost. Hopefully we can end the weekend with a profit.
Thurles
2:10 – Two horses interest me in this 2m handicap hurdle. One prefers a sounder surface and the other showed he relished heavy ground last time.
Polished Steel showed he was at his best on good or good to yielding going when winning over C&D and Punchestown last season. The 6-year-old is 5lb higher than for his Punchestown win. Not so good on three starts on softer ground this autumn but to be fair was still in contention when falling four at Punchestown 19-days ago. The drier the ground the better the 6-year-old’s chance.
Bajan Excell won his first race over hurdles when winning a maiden hurdle at Limerick over Christmas. He relished the heavy ground last time so it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce his form on drying ground. The 4-year-old looks interesting on his handicap hurdle debut off a mark of 118 if he can.
1pt win – Bajan Excell – 4/1 @ Paddy Power
0.5pts each way – Polished Steel – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
3:50 – It might be worth taking a chance with Call The Taxie who returns from a 666-day break. A winner of a maiden hurdle, on heavy ground, back in February 2017. He hasn’t run over fences since pulling up in the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase, when sent off just 9/1, two years ago. Unexposed over fences (1 win from 5 runs), if he retains any of his old ability, he’s a big contender off a mark of 128. Granted his best form has come on soft or heavy ground and he may need further than 2m 5f these days.
Double Portrait won this race last year off 3lb lower, but Kevin Brouder takes off 3lb so he’s effectively racing off the same mark. Ground was good, 12 months ago so today’s ground will be different.
Brex Drago looked a winner in waiting when 3rd of 15 at Leopardstown two starts back on good ground. Back in novice chase company he was on the heels of the leaders when unseating his rider three out. I doubt he would have won even if he stood up, but he could have reached the places. Better ground will suit, and he should go close with a clear round of jumping.
1pt win – Brex Drago – 6/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Call The Taxie – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
Wolverhampton
3:10 – Boom The Groom’s last win came over C&D 11 months ago, off 8lb higher. Has had two starts since returning from 142-day absence and put in a good effort to finish runner-up at Lingfield over 6f 15-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise now and the drop back to 5f will be in his favour, as is his inside draw in stall one. Nudged up 2lb for his Lingfield effort but he’s still well handicapped on his best form.
1pt win – Boom The Groom – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John