Hi all,
A rare foray into the midweek racing for the service. There’s a decent card at Newbury with a couple of decent looking handicap chases to look at. Hopefully the course will survive an early morning inspection.
I have the time to have a good look at two of the Newbury races.
Newbury
1:45 – Just five go to post for what looks a competitive looking Class 3 novices handicap chase. You can give all five some sort of chance.
Nicky Henderson saddles Precious Cargo & Champagne Platinum. The first named was 2 from 3 over hurdles last season. The 7-year-old made a winning seasonal return/chase debut when beating two rivals at Haydock 25-days ago. Had no difficulty with the heavy ground at Haydock. Open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles and the one to beat.
Champagne Platinum a winner here over hurdles last season was expected to make up into a useful chaser this season. The 6-year-old had his first start over fences in a hot novices’ chase at Cheltenham last month but never got into any sort of jumping rhythm that day and finished tailed off. He’s surely better than that given how highly regarded he is by the trainer. Could win this but is a risky proposition.
Moonlighter fell early in the race won by Precious Cargo and he’s now failed to complete on two of his three starts over fences. Not without a chance but jumping will be tested around here.
Champagne City was never travelling when disappointing on his chase debut over C&D 47-days. The saddle slipped that day so that could be an excuse for his poor run. A good hurdler he’s better than what he was able to show last time and trainer Tom George is among the winners.
However, my preference is for the Tom Lacey trained Vado Forte. The 7-year-old is still searching for his first win after four starts over fences. He bounced back after a poor run at Southwell when beaten just a short head & nose over C&D 18-days ago. Now 4lb higher and against potential improvers but he’s capable of winning a race like this over fences.
Verdict: Precious Cargo looks the most likely winner, but I suspect we’ll see a better run from stablemate Champagne Platinum. At the prices Vado Forte might be the one to take advantage should the favourite under perform.
1pt win – Vado Forte – 7/2 @ Bet365
3:25 – An open looking handicap chase and you can make some sort of case for most of the eight declared runners.
The Alan King trained Notachance heads the early betting market. A winner at Exeter two starts back the 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a close-up 5th of 9 over C&D 28-days ago. Didn’t jump as fluently as he did at Exeter but the first time cheekpieces could help today. He did win over hurdles here last March so the course shouldn’t stop him from winning that’s for sure.
Indy Five bounced back to form with a big run here over two furlongs further. Was still in contention when falling at the last. I doubt he would have beaten the eventual winner Copperhead but he was bound for the first three. The drop back to 3m should be in his favour. Clearly not the most straight forward but two of his best three RPR’s have now come at the track.
Scotchtown was a two length, 3rd of 10 behind Carole’s Destrier in the Mandarin Handicap Chase in December 2018 and then went onto finish runner-up at Sandown on his next start. Handicapped to go close but he remains 0 wins from 12 runs over fences. Was sent off the 3/1 favourite on his return at Carlisle 73-days ago but was well beaten. The 8-year-old has had a wind-op since his last run which could make all the difference.
Django Django a decent handicap hurdler last season. He looked a horse worth following over fences when 3rd of 6 to Erick Le Rouge at Uttoxeter on his seasonal return. Didn’t give his running when pulled up at Aintree 80-days ago. The 3m should suit over fences, won over hurdles over the distance. Risky and trainer form could be better but he’s on competitive mark if returning to his best.
Sambura Shujaa, a winner twice over hurdles at Chepstow and looked the sort to do well as handicap chaser. Struggled on heavy ground on his chase debut 19-days ago. Might prefer better ground but the 7-year-old is on a competitive mark with Ben Jones taking off a useful 5lb.
Verdict: The testing ground will suit Notachance, Indy Five and Scotchtown but may not suit potential improvers Django Django and Sambura Shujaa. Slight preference then for Scotchtown and Indy Five.
1pt win – Scotchtown – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Indy Five – 5/1 @ Bet365 or 6/1 @ William Hill (Not BOG)
Cheers
John