Hi all,
I’m writing this on the morning of New Year’s Eve, so I have no idea how my final selection of 2019 fared.
By the time you read this it will be a New Year and a new decade. A New Year means new resolutions. My resolution for 2020 is to concentrate solely on the better class races both flat and NH. Let’s hope I can stick with it and not be tempted by the mediocre fare that dominates the sport.
There’s plenty of racing today but most of it is moderate. However, there’s a strong card of racing at Cheltenham which will pay host to one of its largest attendances outside of the festival. Musselburgh also a competitive looking New Year’s Day card with two Class 2 handicaps the feature races of a six-race card.
Cheltenham
12:50 – Singlefarmpayment is an equine case study on how to throw away winning opportunities. He’s hasn’t tasted success for three years although he’s run plenty of good races in between. He normally comes to the last travelling like a winner but will find nothing once asked for his effort. The 10-year-old must be produced literally on the line if he’s to win. All his best form has come at Cheltenham and he’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark. Well this is probably his easiest assignment in some time, and he does get to race in the first time cheekpieces which could make all the difference. I’m sure he will confound us all and land a race like this. Will it be today?
1pt win – Singlefarmpayment – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 – If you read my Daily Punt column you will know that I have already backed Kalashnikov for this race at 5/1. The top-weight is the class horse of the race and has a great chance on a track & distance that suit. On the negative side is that the race hasn’t cut up and it’s turned into what looks one of the strongest handicaps of the festive period.
Ballyhill is another suited by C&D and won this race two years ago. He’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark and trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won three of the last ten renewals of the race. On the negative side he’s 1-34 in the past 14-days.
Saint Calvados won here over 2m two starts back. He likes soft ground but his stamina for 2m 4 ½ f will be severely tested in this company.
Mister Whitaker won over C&D at the April Meeting, he’s 4lb higher now and this is his seasonal reappearance although he did win first time up last season.
Ex Patriot is an intriguing Irish raider. The 7-year-old is 2 wins from 6 runs over fences and put in career best when third to Battleoverdoyen in a Grade 2 at Punchestown 45-days ago. This former useful hurdler has developed into a good chaser. He does improve to win a hot race like this but he;s got time on his side and could be capable of the required progress.
Cepage runner-up to Frodon in the 2018 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup finished 4th, beaten less than 3 lengths, in this season’s race off 12lb higher. Runner-up to the progressive Riders Onthe Storm on his seasonal reappearance. The 8-year-old’s effort last time was a career best and he can’t be dismissed on a C&D that suits. Trainer runner’s not going great in recent days.
Verdict: I have made some sort of case for half of the field and I still may not have mentioned the winner that how tough this race looks. Kalashnikov has a touch of class and was just caught in the final strides at Newbury. Saint Calvados remains on a fair mark but his stamina for the trip will be tested here. Ex Patriot has solid each way claims while Cepage can’t be ruled out over C&D.
1pt win – Kalashnikov – 4/1 – Gen
1pt each way – Ex Patriot – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:35 – Fourteen hurdlers are set to go to post for this 3m handicap.
Ask Dillon a useful novice hurdler, albeit outclassed in the Ballymore Hurdle here at the festival, ended last season when with a win at Exeter in April. The 7-year-old returned from a 255-day absence to finish 3rd of 11 on his handicap debut at Chepstow 5-days ago. If this race doesn’t come to quick this lightly raced hurdler can be expected to improve.
Skandiburg made it 3 wins from 7 runs over hurdles when winning at Aintree back in November. Up 6lb for that success the 6-year-old seemed to relish the step up to 3m that day and was at his strongest at the finish. First run on a track like Cheltenham but he’s progressive and if he handles the course looks set to go close.
The Jam Man has been placed successfully to win his last four starts putting a career best when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Navan last month. The handicapper has hiked the 7-year-old up 16lb for that last success which makes like tougher but his trainer thinks he could be a Stayer Hurdle contender so his new mark could still underestimate the horse. Not without a chance if he hasn’t reached his class ceiling.
Verdict: It’s hard to say with confidence that The Jam Man improvement has ended, and he’s got each way claims. Preference though is for Skandiburg who looks a saying hurdler going the right way.
1pt win – Skandiburg – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
Musselburgh
1:40 – Cracking Destiny was a comfortable winner here over an extended 2m 37-days ago. He’s been raised 10lb for that 10-length success but he maybe capable of defying a big hike in the ratings as that was the 7-year-old’s first start since joining the Alistair Whillans stable. This is a big step up in class for him, but he travels strongly in his races and looks capable of holding his own in what doesn’t look the strongest race for the grade. Best form has come on good or good to soft so wouldn’t want the ground to ease further but can give his backers a good run for their money if it doesn’t.
Sporting Press was runner-up to Cracking Destiny two starts back and has since finished runner-up to the improving Defi Sacre who has won twice since. Races from 2lb out of the handicap here but is on a good mark and does get a 9lb pull with Crack Destiny. He’s not won for maximum confidence, but he’s won over C&D in the past. In fact, the 7-year-old’s record here is 4 wins from 10 runs +20 8 placed at the track. The hood which has been left on his last two starts returns today and he must be rated an each-way contender of you fancy the likely favourite.
1pt win – Sporting Press – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:15- This Class 2 handicap looks the stronger of the two feature races of the Musselburgh card and attracted a field of 12 hurdlers.
John Quinn who won the race in 2012 saddles a couple of lively contenders in Ashington & Project Bluebook. The former has won two of his three starts over hurdle. The last of those wins came over C&D. Handicap debut today and looks more than capable of holding his own in this company. Project Bluebook seems to have been around for ever but he’s only a 7-year-old. Twice a winner over C&D he’s not the easiest to win with but should go close and never be ruled out.
Three previous winners of this also stand their ground. Normal Norman won this 12 months ago off 8lb lower. A winner on the all-weather at Kempton last month he should be spot for this fitness wise and is well suited to sharp right-handed tracks over hurdles.
Sir Chauvelin won this race 2-year-ago off 4lb lower. He’s 3 wins from 8 runs over hurdles but this will be his first run over the obstacles 620-days. Has run well on the all-weather on his last two starts so no issues with his well-being. Looks an interesting contender, on a track that suits, although he probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease further.
Aristo du Plessis won this four years ago. The 10-year-old hasn’t been the most consistent of horses since, but his mark is falling. He made a promising seasonal reappearance at Wetherby a track he seems to now go well at but failed to build on that promise when only 5th back at that venue 15-days later. There was money for the old boy that day, sent off 5/2 favourite so he must be showing something at home. The trainer has had couple of winners in the past 14-days after a quiet spell. Vulnerable to younger legs but now down to his lowest handicap mark for 5-years and can’t be ruled out if on a going day.
Newtown Boy has won two of his three starts this season and ran out a gutsy winner at Haydock over three furlongs further last month. Can be ridden prominently which is no bad thing around here. Up 4lb for his last success but could be vulnerable to more speedier types on this drop back to the minimum trip.
Verdict: Another race where a good case can be made for half of the field. Ashington’s inexperience over hurdles will be tested here but he could be on a good mark. It may pay to side with one of the previous race winners like Normal Norman or Sir Chauvelin.
1pt win – Normal Norman – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
After a busy few days, that’s me done now until Saturday. Let’s hope we can end with a winner or even two.
Cheers
John